# The Lessons of Past Technologies: Insights for Future Innovations
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Chapter 1: The Rise and Fall of the Pattern Sword
As dawn broke over the British landscape, a soldier, expertly trained, prepared to demonstrate a significant technological advancement of his era. He galloped across the field, ready to test the newly crafted Pattern cavalry sword. With every galloping stride, the sharp blade approached its target: a dummy stuffed with hay. In a fluid motion, the sword struck true, penetrating the dummy's fabric with remarkable efficiency. Unlike the traditional sabers of earlier times that were designed primarily for slashing, the Pattern sword could be effortlessly withdrawn from its target without the risk of damage or becoming stuck.¹ This synergy between horse, rider, and weapon created a formidable force on the battlefield.
“Scotland Forever!” by Lady Butler (1881). Image from Wikimedia Commons.
The Pattern sword stands as one of the most effective cavalry weapons ever engineered.² However, it faced a major challenge: it was introduced in 1908, just six years before World War I commenced, a conflict that would swiftly render cavalry charges, and thus the sword, obsolete.
This phenomenon is not uncommon; often, a technology peaks just before it loses its relevance, with only the most visionary innovators recognizing the impending changes. Staying ahead in the tech landscape requires relentless innovation and the willingness to explore the unknown.
Section 1.1: From Cutting-Edge to Outdated
The fleeting prominence of the Pattern sword mirrors many modern examples. For instance, Blu-ray technology enabled data to be stored on discs in previously unimaginable capacities, yet it quickly became outdated as consumers embraced digital downloads and streaming services.³ Just as cavalry units were phased out after World War I, Apple eliminated the built-in disk drive from their 2012 MacBook lineup, signaling a shift in consumer preferences.
Similarly, the unveiling of Microsoft’s Surface Studio in 2016 showcased a cutting-edge desktop PC with a large touchscreen. It allowed for a creative workspace reminiscent of traditional drafting but came at a time when many had shifted to mobile devices for work.?
Recognizing that the pinnacle of a technology often occurs right before it becomes irrelevant is not a groundbreaking observation. Generally, technologies evolve until they no longer fulfill a need. The existence of sword-wielding cavalry today would likely have led to the development of an even better cavalry sword than the Pattern. So, what leads to the decline of once-dominant technologies?
“The Fighting Temeraire Tugged to Her Last Berth to Be Broken Up” by J.M.W. Turner (1838). Image from Wikimedia Commons.
Section 1.2: Understanding Technological Obsolescence
Throughout history, significant periods have been defined by the primary materials used for tools and weaponry: stone, bronze, and iron. Mastery of these materials was crucial for the survival and advancement of societies. Stone tools prevailed for millennia until the advent of bronze metallurgy transformed agriculture and warfare, giving an overwhelming advantage to those who adapted. Similarly, iron overtook bronze due to its superior characteristics.
Improvements in weaponry and tools are inherently limited by the materials available. Once a society mastered a better metal, the older materials became obsolete. Civilizations that resisted adopting advancements often faced conquest by those that embraced them.
This principle is evident in numerous technological transitions over time. Historically, once-dominant technologies have been outpaced by their successors. A cavalryman with a sword would struggle against a soldier armed with a firearm, just as physical CDs have been overshadowed by the convenience of digital formats. Today, we no longer rely on sailboats or horse-drawn carriages; even Clark Kent would find it challenging to locate a phone booth, given the ubiquity of smartphones.
Chapter 2: Embracing the Creative Destruction
The relentless pace of technological change has significant ramifications for businesses. Companies that endure understand that mere incremental improvements to existing products are insufficient for long-term viability. They must embrace transformation and venture into new territories, even if it jeopardizes current revenue streams.
Steve Jobs's choice to launch the iPhone, despite the potential threat to iPod sales—representing up to 40% of Apple’s revenue—serves as a prime example. Similarly, Reed Hastings’s foray into online streaming posed risks to Netflix’s original business model of DVD rentals. Mark Zuckerberg's acquisition of Instagram, at a time when Facebook's traffic heavily relied on desktop usage, also proved to be forward-thinking.
The concept of creative destruction explains the substantial investments made in emerging technologies, even when they may seem trivial today. Take augmented reality (AR) glasses, for instance. Unlike virtual reality (VR) headsets that immerse users in digital worlds, AR simply enhances the real world with additional digital information, such as navigation prompts.?
Major tech firms like Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Apple are heavily investing in AR, with projections indicating that spending in this sector could surpass $50 billion by 2026.? As AR technology advances and gains traction, it holds the potential to revolutionize various industries, from retail to healthcare. In time, ambient computing could replace smartphones as the primary interface for human-computer interaction, just as smartphones have eclipsed traditional PCs.
“The Gare Saint-Lazare: Arrival of a Train” by Claude Monet (1877). Image from Wikimedia Commons.
The Implications of Underestimating New Technologies
Whether AR will become mainstream or remain a niche remains uncertain. However, it is unwise to underestimate the potential of such emerging technologies.
Innovative ideas often face skepticism. Google Glass, launched in 2013, was widely mocked for its design, and those who wore it were derogatorily labeled “glassholes.”¹? The backlash was partially fueled by a flawed launch that prioritized hype over product reliability. Moreover, privacy concerns arose from the device’s camera capabilities.¹² Yet, dismissing the potential of such innovations can lead to missed opportunities.
Even seemingly simple inventions, like the umbrella, faced ridicule at their inception. The first man to use one in London was derided despite its practicality in the rain.¹? It took years for the umbrella to become a staple item.
Throughout history, experts have often failed to recognize the promise of nascent technologies. A notable instance occurred in 1911 when French General Ferdinand Foch dismissed airplanes as trivial inventions lacking military significance.¹? At that time, the military's focus remained on traditional warfare tactics, failing to foresee the vital role aviation would play in future conflicts.
More recently, economist Paul Krugman predicted in 1998 that the internet’s economic impact would be negligible compared to that of the fax machine.¹? Given the transformative influence of the internet today, it is clear how misguided this assessment was.
Foch and Krugman's miscalculations highlight the importance of recognizing the value of emerging technologies, regardless of their initial limitations. Resistance to change, while understandable, can lead to significant oversights. Those who fail to appreciate the revolutionary potential of new innovations risk finding themselves on the wrong side of history.
References
[1] Yallop, N. (n.d.). “Pattern 1908 Cavalry Sword.” Royal Armouries. (Link).
[2] Ibid.
[3] Britannica, T. Editors of Encyclopaedia (2023, February 2). “Blu-ray.” Encyclopedia Britannica. (Link).
[4] Pettey, C. and Forni, A. (2017, January 11). “Gartner Says 2016 Marked Fifth Consecutive Year of Worldwide PC Shipment Decline” Gartner. (Link).
[5] Britannica, T. Editors of Encyclopaedia (2023, January 6). “Bronze Age.” Encyclopedia Britannica. (Link).
[6] Molla, R. (2017, June 26). “How Apple’s iPhone changed the world: 10 years in 10 charts.” Vox. (Link).
[7] Wingfield, N. (2009, June 24). “Netflix boss Plots life after the DVD.” The Wall Street Journal. (Link).
[8] Hosch, W. L. (2022, December 9). “Augmented reality.” Encyclopedia Britannica. (Link).
[9] Shirer, M. and Torchia, M. (2022, November 22). “IDC Spending Guide Forecasts Strong Growth for Augmented and Virtual Reality.” International Data Corporation. (Link).
[10] Bilton, N. (2015, February 4). “Why Google Glass Broke.” The New York Times. (Link).
[11] Ibid.
[12] Bilton, N. (2014, February 19). “Google Offers a Guide to not Being a ‘Creepy’ Google Glass Owner.” The New York Times. (Link).
[13] Waters, M. (2016, July 27). “The Public Shaming of England’s First Umbrella User.” Atlas Obscura. (Link).
[14] Ibid.
[15] As quoted in Time: A Traveler’s Guide (1998) by Clifford A. Pickover, p. 249. Retrieved from Wikiquote (Link).
[16] Quote from Paul Krugman’s article in The Red Herring (1998). Retrieved from Wikiquote (Link).
A panel discussion exploring how technology is reshaping democracy and our daily lives.
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