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The Future of Cryptocurrency: Key Considerations for Investors

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The landscape of cryptocurrency has evolved significantly since the inception of the Bitcoin blockchain in 2009, which marked the beginning of peer-to-peer decentralized networks. The enigmatic Satoshi Nakamoto introduced a groundbreaking system that allows for the transfer of digital assets globally. Over the years, numerous assertions have been made regarding blockchain technology—ranging from its role as "the future of finance" to being labeled as "the first non-manipulated currency system." However, these claims risk becoming meaningless without the essential advancements in technology. Many investors remain uninformed about these limitations, yet they continue to allocate substantial portions of their wealth into cryptocurrencies, often lacking a fundamental understanding of the underlying technology.

Blockchain's Core Strengths

The primary advantage of blockchain technology is its inherent security. When it comes to on-chain data, blockchains exhibit a high level of security. Most security breaches reported in the media are not due to actual blockchain hacks, but rather result from individuals being duped into revealing their wallet's private keys through phishing scams, or hackers exploiting vulnerabilities in smart contracts, as seen in the recent Crema Finance incident, which resulted in a $6 million loss.

So, what makes blockchains so secure? The answer lies in what I refer to as four layers of security:

  1. Encryption and Hashing: The first layer ensures that all data on the blockchain is both encrypted and hashed. Encryption safeguards the data, making it accessible only to those with the private key, while hashing transforms data into unique, irreversible outputs. Any alteration in the data changes the corresponding hash, making tampering easily detectable.

    Understanding the concept of hashing can be challenging. Think of it like creating an omelet from eggs: while an omelet is unique and cannot be reverted back to its original eggs, a hash works similarly in the realm of mathematical functions.

  2. Interlinked Blocks: Each block in the blockchain contains the hash of its predecessor, forming a chain. If a hacker attempts to alter a block, the hash changes, invalidating all subsequent blocks. This means that the hacker would need to modify every single subsequent block, which is an immense challenge given the scale of networks like Bitcoin, which has over 743,000 blocks.

  3. Sybil Control Mechanism: This is the third layer, which includes Proof-of-Work in Bitcoin and Proof-of-Stake in blockchains like Avalanche. These mechanisms dictate how participants can engage with the blockchain, with miners needing to solve complex problems or validators staking their assets. This process not only slows down potential attacks but also deters malicious behavior.

    It’s important to distinguish between control mechanisms and consensus mechanisms. While Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake function as control mechanisms, the actual consensus in Bitcoin is achieved through Nakamoto consensus, which addresses the Byzantine Generals Problem.

  4. Decentralization: The final and arguably most crucial layer is decentralization. Truly decentralized networks are incredibly difficult to compromise. If a malicious actor alters a block, they would need control over more than 51% of the network's nodes to implement their changes successfully. For Bitcoin, with over 14,000 nodes, this is an almost impossible task. This is why Bitcoin has remained secure.

In essence, the unique attribute of blockchain technology lies in its ability to create decentralized networks that achieve consensus without central authority, providing secure storage solutions while ensuring data traceability and trustless proof of ownership. These foundational principles underpin the myriad applications of cryptocurrency, including smart contracts and NFTs.

Scalability: The Next Challenge for Cryptocurrency

Having established the value of blockchain, it is essential to recognize what the crypto sector currently lacks: scalability without compromising decentralization. The blockchain trilemma posits that it is impossible to achieve scalability, decentralization, and security simultaneously.

Take Bitcoin, for example. It is the most decentralized blockchain, and thus arguably the most secure. However, this decentralization comes at a significant cost: Bitcoin is also the least scalable. Currently, it can handle only seven transactions per second, which raises concerns about its viability as a digital currency. This has shifted the narrative from "Bitcoin as digital money" to "Bitcoin as digital gold." While Bitcoin's Lightning Network offers some scalability, it leans towards centralization.

Similarly, Ethereum, though on its way to increased decentralization with Eth 2.0, currently struggles with high gas fees.

In response to scalability challenges, many other blockchains have opted to prioritize scalability over decentralization. Solana exemplifies this trend, offering impressive scalability but at the cost of increased centralization, leading to frequent exploits and outages.

To address these bottlenecks, new solutions like Layer 2 blockchains (L2s) have emerged, which operate atop Layer 1 blockchains (like Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche) to alleviate congestion. However, this often leads to further centralization.

Projects like Avalanche are attempting to tackle the trilemma with their innovative subnets feature. This creates smaller blockchains within the primary network, each with its own rules, validated by a subset of validators from the main chain. Early results are promising, yet sufficient evidence to declare a complete resolution of the trilemma is still lacking.

What If Blockchains Remain Inflexible?

Scalability remains both the ultimate goal and the Achilles’ heel of cryptocurrency. Demonstrating that blockchains can scale effectively would be a pivotal moment for the entire crypto industry. Without scalability, central banks will remain hesitant to embrace cryptocurrencies, as the absence of scalability hinders DeFi, NFTs, and broader adoption.

Is blockchain truly destined to scale? Some, like Twitter's Jack Dorsey, argue against the feasibility of a blockchain that is both fully decentralized and scalable. He suggests a return to a non-blockchain distributed network model, leveraging Bitcoin’s blockchain for identity management, which would require a different level of scalability. Conversely, in the realm of Web 3.0, where DeFi thrives, scalability is essential, and the crypto community has yet to prove its capability for large-scale use.

It's crucial to ensure that any advancements in scalability do not come at the expense of decentralization. Decentralization is not just a marketing point; it's a critical security feature. The world does not need centralized blockchains, as they fail to provide substantial benefits that justify the effort of building a new financial and internet infrastructure. We must strive for truly decentralized and scalable blockchains, as emphasized by industry leaders like Vitalik Buterin and Emin Gun Sirer.

In Conclusion

This article is not intended to criticize the crypto space; I am personally invested in it and optimistic about its future. Nevertheless, I acknowledge the inherent risks, and there are no guarantees of success. Always conduct thorough research before making any investments in cryptocurrency, and only invest what you can afford to lose.

While I express my thoughts through Medium, I also share a newsletter every Sunday, summarizing key tech, crypto, and market developments in a concise manner to help you leverage this knowledge for your ventures. Feel free to subscribe:

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